![]() Using a computer tool developed by FEMA, they estimate that there may be as many as 1800 deaths and $191 billion in damages (in 2008 dollars and level of infrastructural development Porter et al., 2011).Ī large earthquake on the Puente Hills Blind Thrust Fault would strongly shake the most densely part of the Southland. ![]() Geological Survey prepared a study of the impacts of an earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (Jones et al., 2008). If not, check out the video series “ The Whistle.” The U.S. Many are familiar with the hazards from an earthquake on the San Andreas fault. If the 1993 Long Beach earthquake were to recur, the losses could be between $131 and $781 million, depending upon the earthquake size (given analysis in 2006 using valuation estimates from 2002 Swift et al., 2012). The 1933 M=6.4 Long Beach earthquake ruptured the Newport-Inglewood fault, killing 120 and causing widespread damage estimated to be between $40 and $50 million (1933 dollars Swift et al., 2012). A recent M=5.1 earthquake on 29 March 2014 highlighted the presence of the Puente Hills and other blind fault faults in southern California capable of producing damaging earthquakes. What about other quakes in the Southland?Īn earthquake on the Puente Hills blind thrust fault, which runs beneath much of the Los Angeles basin including downtown, could cause over $600 billion in economic damages (Larsen et al., 2015). But the insured losses would amount to only $16-$24 billion, or 10-15% of the total. Patricia Grossi from RMS, Inc., concluded that if an M=6.7 Northridge earthquake struck in 2014, it would cause up to $155 billion in total economic losses, comparable to that for Hurricane Katrina, which cost the nation $148 billion. Sylmar Overpass damage from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. There are other blind faults in southern California that pose an equal or greater hazard to the economy and well-being of Angelinos, and despite being associated with earthquakes up to M=7.3, blind thrusts are notoriously difficult to identify. ![]() The M=6.7 earthquake struck on a ‘blind’ thrust fault (meaning that geologists were blind to its presence). What if the Northridge Earthquake Happened Today? The government shutdown would only compound the problems. Today people are far less insured, and the best estimates suggest that we would take a major economic hit if one like it were to strike the Southland today. Twenty-five years ago, the M=6.7 Northridge earthquake caused enormous damage in southern California. Patton, Ph.D., Ross Stein, Ph.D., Volkan Sevilgen, M.Sc.Ĭitation: Patton J.R., Stein R.S., Sevilgen V., 2019, What if the Northridge earthquake had struck today, on its 25th anniversary, during the U.S.
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